Chase Betting System
Posted : admin On 4/1/2022In the world of sports betting, everybody is looking for an edge. While most experienced sharp bettors realize that building a bankroll involves careful money management, detailed analytical research and a great deal of patience, many new bettors are looking for easy ways to win big.
Betting System Chase Strategies And Martingale Strategy Fundamentals of the Martingale System: Roulette The Martingale strategy is mainly based on ‘Bettor’s Fallacy,’ which trusts that an event will. Does Chase Betting Actually Work? Chasing betting systems are a controversial tactic in sports betting. Of all the debates over Avoid Chase Betting Systems Read More ». The chase system is based upon the premise that you should not be able to incorrectly handicap a game for seven days in a row. If you are betting $100.00 per event in a chase system, and are incorrect 7.
Often times, these individuals will contact us asking why we don’t win at the 80+% rate that many handicappers promise. The reason? Nobody in sports betting wins over 80% of the time. In fact, even the legendary Billy Walters claims a winning percentage of “just” 57%.
Knowing what is necessary to be a profitable sports investor over a prolonged period of time, it can be very irritating to see handicappers promise impossible results to novice sports bettors who are swept away by grand promises of easy money. In the past we have exposed scamdi-cappers such as John Morrison, a.k.a. “The Sports Betting Champ”, who claimed a historic winning percentage of 97% and a weekly income of over $50,000. Yet despite this success, Morrison spent his time trying to sell his winning system for just a fraction of his weekly earnings.
These bold claims remind me of an old cliché: “If something seems too good to be true, it probably is”. If you have a system that can’t miss, you don’t share it with the world. You utilize it until sportsbooks refuse to take your bets or until you can afford to spend your days swimming in a pool full of gold ala Scrooge McDuck.
Recently, a similar handicapper by the name of Chad Smith (or as he’s more commonly known the Sports Betting Star) has come to our attention with seemingly unattainable claims of a 95% winning rate. You would think that somebody with such an unbelievable system would simply bet these games on their own and then begin the arduous decision of which private island to buy. Amazingly, you can receive a lifetime of these nearly unbeatable picks for just $175.
The system seems simple enough. In exchange for a one-time payment of $175, you will receive a daily e-mail with Mr. Smith’s best picks. All you have to do is log into your sportsbook or visit your local bookie and place your bet. In fact, his website claims that you don’t have to know anything about sports nor do you have to be a “computer genius”.
Much like the Sports Betting Champ, the SportsBettingStar makes his money by heavily marketing his product to the public, selling his system by inflating his winning percentages and covering up negative reviews (or creating fake positive reviews for that matter). The website http://sportsbettingstarreviews.blogspot.com has a glowing review of the Sports Betting Star; however it was very odd to see that there have been no other posts on this website and that the author has not penned any other articles.
For those who stumble across his website without a background in sports betting, the promises of easy riches can be extremely enticing.
Of course, the curiosity over such a staggering figure as 95% is hard to overcome. Still not convinced? Okay, but here is what The Sports Betting Star is not telling you:
His Winning Percentage is Not Based on Actual Won/Lost Records
The SportsBettingStar system utilizes a three-tiered betting structure, in which individual bets are not counted towards wins or loses. Instead, they use a three-bet chase system which basically means that a certain team must win at least one of three games. Chad Smith directs his customers to bid on that team, one game at a time, doubling their bet size until the team finally wins. Only if the team loses all three bets is it considered a “loss.”
In other words, a team that loses twice and wins once would have a record of 1-0 in Smith’s system, not 1-2 as would be expected. The result? A very risky system in which a single three-game losing streak can cripple your bankroll. Unfortunately none of that information is detailed under the “how it works” section of his website.
His “Units Won” Results are Never Displayed or Disclosed
Smith doesn’t flaunt his units won on his website, but almost every page on the site makes mention of the 95% winning rate. The reason behind that is that his artificially inflated 95% winning record looks much better than what his units won results would. With this system you are constantly making large bets for small returns as you try to make up for previous losses. The Martingale System itself only “guarantees” a one unit profit in theory (the original wager), and the theory is reliant on having unlimited funds to wager.
A terrific explanation of why Martingale systems can be so dangerous can be found here: http://scams.wikispaces.com/Martingale+Systems.
This System Requires an Unlimited Bankroll for Marginal Success
Also known as a loss recuperation method, the martingale theory of wagering states that a win can be assured if a wager has even odds and a 50% chance of winning and each betting loss is doubled on the subsequent bet.
For example, if a $50 bet loses, you would bet $100 dollars to recoup those losses. If that fails, bet $200 on the next contest, and so on and so forth ad infinitum. For a $50 bettor with a $1,000 bankroll, this system would come to a harsh conclusion after just four losses in a row as you would already be in the hole by $550 ($50+$100+$200+$400=$550). At that point you would have just $450 remaining which is not enough to recoup your original losses. All that just to chase a $50 profit.
What’s more, this theory doesn’t even account for the vig/juice. The vig ensures that each bet has to be progressively larger in order to recoup previous losses. Following our previous example, you would essentially go broke after only four consecutive losses chasing a $50 profit if we assume the traditional 10% vig:
$55 bet to win $50 – $55 lost
$115 bet to win $105 ($55+$50) – $170 lost
$245 bet to win $220 ($115+$55+$50) – $415 lost
$520 to win $465 ($245+$115+$55+$50) – $935 lost
This also plays into what’s known as the gambler’s fallacy. Also referred to as the Monte Carlo fallacy, this theory surmises that if deviations from expected behavior are observed in repeated independent trials of a random process, future variations in the opposite direction are more probable. In other words, if you flip a coin ten times and heads comes up every time, many people will believe that the next result must be tails because the odds of heads coming up 11 times in a row is 0.000488 (0.5 to the 11th power). In fact, each coin flip is an independent event and that there is still a 50% chance of tails coming up on the 11th flip.
What You Can Expect by Following the Sports Betting Star
In reality, there are only three possible outcomes you can expect by using this system:
1) Wager a lot to win a little.
2) Wager a lot to lose a little
3) Wager a lot to lose everything.
The main factor in determining which outcome will apply to you is your bankroll and your luck. If your bankroll is large enough to make continuous large bets (1,000 times the size of your unit bet), than you will probably win a little in the long term. However, if your bankroll is that large, you are probably wise enough to realize this system is a scam and not worth your time.
If your bankroll is medium to small then it would be nearly impossible for you to turn a profit in the long run. You will most likely lose either a little or lose everything, all depending on how lucky you are. If you hit a losing streak early on, you will be broke. If you hit a losing streak in the middle, you will be a loser and probably broke. If you are lucky enough to avoid a losing streak for some time, then you may win a little. To keep your winnings, you must walk away and never wager again because every time you start this system over, you increase your probability of going broke.
Betting with the Sports Betting Star’s system gives you the same edge you would receive at a casino, which is to say none whatsoever. Feeling lucky? Instead of paying $175 for this service you could go to Vegas, sit down at the blackjack table, and keep doubling your bets until you’ve turned a small profit or — much more likely — gone broke.
The Good News
The good news in all of this is that there are legitimate ways to make money in sports gambling. Like any marketplace, the sports betting world is full of inefficiencies that can be exploited by shrewd bettors. Litanies of systems exist that utilize hard data rather than gimmicks, and these systems find inefficiencies in the market and exploit them. This does not mean that there are such things as guaranteed winners or five-star, platinum club locks. Rather, it means that certain situations present opportunities where there is value in taking one side over another based on historical data and precedence.
Making money betting on sports can be tough, but there are a lot of sports bettors who consistently win, and there are even a lot of professional bettors who make a good living off of sports betting. On this page you will find sports betting strategy and tips to help you become one of the winning bettors.
Below I talk about the basic sports betting strategies for beginner bettors, but if you are more experienced you can check out the advanced sports betting strategy articles towards the bottom of this page.
The Basics To Sports Betting Strategy
In order to help yourself make money or a profit from sports betting there are a couple of basic strategies or tips you will want to understand and follow. None of these sports betting strategies are secrets by any means, but following them will help you win money betting on sports.
The bettors who don’t follow any of these strategies are often referred to as “squares” and those are the type of bettors that the sportsbooks will make their profits from.
#1 Money Management/Bankroll Management
When you are betting on sports you should always set aside a certain amount of money, which we refer to as your “bankroll”, in which you can afford to lose. Like with any type of gambling, you never want to bet betting on sports with money you cannot afford to lose. Set aside a certain amount of money that you can use for your bankroll for the week, the month, or the season. A general sports betting strategy for money management is to only make bets with 1%-5% of your bankroll. For example, if your bankroll for the NFL season was $1,000 you would be making $10-$50 bets on each NFL game you wanted to bet on. It is also very important that you do not chase your loses with bigger bets. It is common for some sports bettors to be down money and feel in order to win it back they need to increase the size of their bets. This is putting yourself in the wrong mindset and will often lead to you losing even more money. Work with the size of your bankroll, and look to slowly increase it over the length of the season.
Here’s a video going over Bankroll Management strategies for sports betting:
#2 Bet Sober and Don’t Go on Tilt
Although betting while sober seems like common sense, you’d be surprised how many people bet on sports under the influence. Is it a coincidence that the Las Vegas casinos offer free alcoholic drinks while you are gambling? I don’t think so. I don’t want to sound like your mother here, but betting while under the influence will impair your judgement and should definitely be avoided if you want to become a winning sports bettor.
The second part of this tips is “Don’t Go on Tilt”. Going on tilt or “tilting” is a commonly referred to term with poker players and basically means letting your emotions take over, which often leads to bad decisions. If you are angry or upset at something, such as a couple bad beats with your sports bets, you shouldn’t be placing any more bets. Take a break, go for a walk, get your mind clear before you start making anymore sports betting picks.
Free Sports Betting Systems
#3 Do Your Homework
This is maybe the most important sports betting strategy. You will always want to do your research before placing your bets. Although going with your hunch when betting your favorite sport may work some of the time, in the long run it will not lead to you winning money betting on sports. In order to profit from sports betting you will need to research, study, and do your homework for each pick you make. Look at stats, find trends, create sports betting systems, analyze past games – basically do everything you could possibly do to ensure you have value in your pick before you place your wager.
#4 Line Shopping
A very big step to becoming a winning sports bettor is to make sure you are shopping for the best lines. What this means is that you will have to have an account at a couple of different online sportsbooks and when you are ready to make a bet on a certain team or outcome you check the different sportsbooks and find which book is offering the best line for you (this ties in with our advanced how to find max value article). For example, if you are looking to bet on the New England Patriots on a 7 point spread, you would want to check a couple different sportsbooks to see if any of them are offering the Patriots at 6.5 points, or at the very least find the best price you can get them at 7 points at. Over the course of a sport betting season you can win yourself a lot of money from shopping the lines that would otherwise would not be one. Line shopping is definitely one of the best sports betting strategies used by winning sports bettors. To see a list of sportsbooks we recommend signing up for visit our Online Betting Sites section.
I’ve created a line shopping video and posted it on YouTube (seen below):
#5 Avoid Buying Points
Avoid falling into “square” tendencies such as buying favorites down or underdogs up. For example, some bettors always feel the need to buy an NFL favorite of -3.5 down to -2.5. The sportsbooks are smart enough to charge more juice to do this, mathematically making it a bad strategy. The same goes with buying an NFL underdog from +2.5 to +3.5 for example. In 99% of cases I would advise against it. Check out the video I made below about buying points on NFL underdogs.
Other Sports Betting Strategies and Myths
Show Betting System
Above are the four main basic strategies you will want to follow in order to become a winning sports bettor, but there are a couple of other tips you can use to help you win money.
For one, you can try following a sports handicapper who is using a proven sports betting system. Be careful of scammers out there though. If they don’t show their past records long term plus proof I would pass, and in most cases I wouldn’t be paying for picks at all.
An old sports betting strategy is to bet on home underdogs. The theory is that teams are usually more inspired to play at home, and they will often not fold if they are down like they may when on the road. Betting home dogs in the past could have made you money, but this isn’t true as much anymore. You can read the current betting market article to learn why.
Sports Betting Systems
The last tip I have for you is to try and place your bets at the right time. With lines shifting from the time they are posted to the time the game starts, you will want to get your bet in at the time when you are getting the best price. Predicting line movements is extremely hard but it is worth looking into. Check out the video below that I made titled “When To Place Your Bets”.
Advanced Sports Betting Strategy Articles
Baseball Chase Betting Systems
» How to Place a Bet
» How to Win at Sports Betting
» Sports Betting Math
» Teaser Betting Strategy
» Prop Betting Strategy
» How to Get Max Value When Betting
» Future Betting Strategy
» NFL Bye Week Betting Strategy
» Parlay Betting Strategy
» Pleaser Betting Strategy
» Sweetheart Teaser Betting Strategy
» Current Betting Market
» How to Research Your Bet
» Mistakes You Need to Avoid
» Things Beginners Need to Know
» Win/Loss vs Value