Football Betting Systems That Work
Posted : admin On 4/1/2022Betting 2% or Less of Your Bankroll. A common scenario for casual gamblers is to walk into the.
- Football Betting Systems That Work
- Do Any Betting Systems Work
- Gambling Systems That Work
- Sports Betting Strategies Proven
- Free Football Betting Systems That Work
- Free Football Betting Systems That Work
- Football Betting Systems That Work - here we have a list of all the best football betting systems that work, both pre match, and in-play.
- Are you looking for a football betting system that works every single time? The number one and by far the best football betting system is matched betting. Unlike a few other methods listed in this post.
Welcome to football betting systems that work. Here it is our aim to bring you football – and general – betting strategies that work, and make plenty of money for visitors to this website.
For any football betting system to work, it first and foremost has to make you money – otherwise what is the point of it?
You may rightly ask “how can a football betting system claim to work, when there are so many things that can happen to influence a football match?” For example, a referee’s decision, a deflected goal, etc, etc. These are all things that can influence a game and ruin the best made plans of any football betting system.
To get around these issues we use a selection of differing football betting systems. Doing this, we are trying to take the result out of the equation. For example, Accumulator Generator is a risk free system that makes money from free bets, it is essentially a matched betting system. This means that we don’t require teams to win to profit.
Best Football Betting Systems
– Accumulator Generator
– Pre Match Trading
– Assured Soccer Profits
– Over 2.5 Goals
Pre Match Trading makes money on the betting exchanges, before a ball is kicked. This means again, it doesn’t matter who wins, as you have profited before the match even starts. Assured Soccer Profits trades the Correct Score market on Betfair, and is results dependent. The Over 2.5 Goals system depends on goals being scored.
So as you can see there is a decent amount of versatility in our recommended football betting systems. We believe this covers a lot of bases, and offers football bettors of all persuasions something. Below we take a look at our recommended football betting systems that work in more detail.
Accumulator Generator
The Accumulator Generator system makes money from the free bets you get when your acca loses. The trick is too place as many accumulator bets as possible, cover them on the Betfair betting exchange to break even, and then sit back and hope to trigger as many free bets as possible.
It’s from the free bets that the money is made. So for example, you place a 5 team acca bet with Paddy Power, you then lay your bets on Betfair to make sure you don’t lose money. You then hope that 4 out of the 5 teams win, triggering the free bet.
Accumulator Generator shows you the method of how to place your accumulator bet in a way that doesn’t lose. It can also find you the accumulator bets to place. It almost does all of the work for you.
Using the Accumulator Generator trial, you can give it a road test for just £1.00 + Vat for 14 days. You then have two choices. You can cancel inside the 14 days, or automatically get billed the remainder of the subscription at the end of the 14 days. This is a one off payment.
Pre Match Trading
Another relatively risk free, and one of our football betting systems that work is Pre Match Trading. Also known as PMT, Pre Match Trading finds misaligned prices on the Betfair Betting Exchange.
Users of this system get access to the software that finds these misaligned prices. You also get access to the chat room, where there is like minded members all trying to achieve the same. So you get their alerts as well.
The PMT software will spot things like 2-1 getting backed in, and Over 2.5 goals not getting backed in. This means that you can go and back Over 2.5 goals, as you know it will have to shorted to keep up with 2-1 getting backed. It also spots the reverse, ie, Over 2.5 goals getting backed in, allowing you to back 2-1, knowing that the odds on this scoreline will also shorten.
You then sit back, wait for odds to shorten, and lay the bet for risk free profits. All before a ball is kicked.
Assured Soccer Profits
This betting system does carry a loss risk. It is a system for patient gamblers who are happy to gradually accumulate small amounts of money, rather than those looking for the big win.
Also known as ASP, Assured Soccer Profits trades the correct score market on the Betfair betting exchange. It involves placing lay and back bets at certain periods in a match, or pre kick off.
You can go through periods of winning on nearly every match using ASP, but one losing match can wipe out a few matches worth of profits. The idea is that over a long period of time, you will profit.
Football Betting Systems That Work
The system shows you how to select your matches. This is crucial, as bad match selection is what basically costs you here. If you pick the wrong matches, you will be in trouble. Pick the right matches, and you will profit nicely from this.
Over 2.5 Goals
Like with ASP above, the Over 2.5 Goals system can lose. This is pretty much a ‘does what it says on the tin’ football betting system.
For your cash you will get a list of teams whose matches consistently have 3 goals or more scored. You will also get a staking plan, and any subsequent updates. The staking plan is key, if you follow it you can absorb losing bets. Ignore the staking plan, and it will cost you.
The system costs £20.40 in total. This is a one off payment, and included in that is any updates to the list.
Disclaimer:
Every effort is made to make sure all the information provided on this website is up to date. In the interests of honesty and disclosure, we have to point out that we do make commission on any sales made through this website.
Football Betting Systems That Work only give advice on betting systems, we have no power or influence over any of them. It is your responsibility to read all the terms and conditions of any betting system you are considering purchasing.
All information on this website is honest and genuine. Terms and conditions, prices, etc, on any of these football betting systems can change at any time, and without any notice. We at Football Betting Systems That Work will do our best to update any changes as soon as it comes to our attention. It is still your responsibility to make sure you are happy with any product, and understand what it is you are purchasing.
A football betting system is a method or strategy used by handicappers to bet
on football games. A system’s mission is to find betting value and/or increase
the chances of winning wagers.
Football betting systems can range from simple to
very complex. Regardless of the many angles and intricacies of a system, none of
them can guarantee that you will win.
How to Create Football Betting Systems
Creating a football betting system ultimately comes down to each individual.
Since there’s no betting system that is guaranteed to win every time, each
person has two options: to create their own systems or to purchase picks from a
winning pro handicapper.
Keep in mind, though, that the football handicapper is
selling you his picks based on the football betting system that he created.
Although there isn’t a universal system for winning your bets every time,
there are some key factors that can be found in just about every practical
football betting system.
What You Should Understand Before Betting on Football
This should go without saying, but you would be surprised at how many people
get involved with sports betting and don’t even know
how to bet
on football. Before placing a single wager, all bettors should at least know
the following basic football betting concepts:
- Moneyline
The moneyline represents each team’s odds of winning. For example, the Cowboys
are -250 to win, and the Eagles are +210 to win. If you pick the Cowboys to win,
then you will take the moneyline at -250 odds, which means you will have to bet
$250 to win $100. If you choose the Eagles, then you will bet $100 to win $210. - Spread
The spread represents how many points a team has to win or lose by. Using the
same teams above, the Cowboys are favored by 7 points. This means Dallas has to
win by more than 7 points if you bet on them. The Eagles would have to lose by
less than 7 points if you decide to go with Philly in the wager. - Totals (Over/Under)
The wager on totals requires the teams to go over or under a total amount
of points. For example, the Cowboys and Eagles have an O/U of 46.5 points. If
you think they will score more than 46 points, then you will take the over. If
you think they will score less than 46 points, then you take the under. - Parlays
Parlays are single wagers that consist of multiple bets. To win a parlay wager, all the bets you
picked have to win. For example, a 3-team spread parlay consists of you choosing
3 spreads for different football games. So, you would take the Cowboys at -7,
the Giants at +4, and the Vikings at -2. To win your 3-team parlay, all of those
teams would have to cover their spreads. Parlays are harder to hit, but they do
have higher payouts. - Teasers
Teasers are
similar to parlays in that they also require you to bet on multiple teams,
games, or straight bets. However, unlike parlays, teasers allow you to add
points to a spread or over/under. For example, you take the three teams
mentioned above with a 3-team, 6-point teaser. These 6 points would adjust the
spreads to Cowboys -1, Giants +10, and Vikings +4. To win your teaser bet, you
would need to have all 3 teams cover those spreads. Payouts for teasers are less
due to getting the extra points.
To create a football betting system, you must know what the popular sports
betting terms are for football, their respective odds, and payouts.
How can you create and implement a betting system if you don’t even know what
you are creating it for or betting on?
Football Knowledge
Just like with sports betting, creating a football betting system requires
you to actually know about football. Now, this isn’t just knowing things like
the number of teams in the league, the names of the conferences, and who won the
last Super Bowl. We’re talking about knowing coaching philosophies, the type of
defensive scheme a team runs, how a team approaches 3rd downs, touchdown
percentages in the red zone, 2-point conversion attempts, and more.
A football betting system could include all of these factors and a great deal
more. So, it’s important to start learning as much as you can about the sport
before wagering. The best time to learn about football and betting on the sport
is during the offseason. Check out our guide on how to use the
offseason more effectively and increase your football IQ.
Ability to Handicap Football
The term “handicapping” can really intimidate new and inexperienced bettors.
However, it’s not as scary as one may think. To simplify it as much as possible,
handicapping is basically gathering and analyzing factors, data, and other
nuggets of valuable information in order to place a bet. In regards to football
betting systems, handicapping is the actual work that you are doing to create
the system.
For example, let’s say you thoroughly study the upcoming Monday Night
Football game between the Chargers at the Broncos. You look at factors like the
Chargers’ road record, Broncos’ home record, winning streaks, momentum, next
week’s game, injuries, weather, offensive ranks versus defensive ranks,
strengths versus weaknesses, and head coaching styles.
After all of that information gathering and analyzing, you decide that the
Chargers getting 5 points in Denver has value. So, you place a wager on the
Chargers +5.
All of that information that you just gathered can be considered
“handicapping.” To really hammer home this point, all of that handicapping can
turn into your football betting system, as you can take that list of data points
and apply it to any game you are interested in betting on.
One last reminder – if you don’t know the game of football and you don’t
understand how to bet on football, then you will definitely not be able to
properly handicap the sport.
Self-Discipline
Like with any activity, profession, trade, or hobby, you must be able to
exercise a modicum of self-discipline. Without it, you will end up losing all of
your money and go broke trying to bet on football. What separates
advanced/experienced bettors from newbies/inexperienced bettors are two things:
knowledge and discipline.
Experienced bettors are disciplined enough not to lose sight of their betting
system. Additionally, they don’t commit any of these common mistakes:
- Chasing losses
- Disproportionate wagers to
bankroll - Bankroll mismanagement
- Casual betting
- Betting while drunk
- Betting on sports they don’t
know
Eliminating mistakes like the ones above will help you to remain disciplined.
But remember that nobody else is going to hold you accountable to your betting
system. So, you have to develop a strong self-discipline to keep yourself
accountable, on track, and in a position to win more of your wagers.
Higher Aptitude for Math
If you hate math, then you are in the wrong business. Sports betting requires
math. From analyzing data to lines, odds, and spreads, sports betting uses
mathematics all the time. Fortunately, with all of the resources on our site and
the internet, you can learn the required math skills. But make no mistake about
it – creating a football betting system requires a heavy dose of mathematics.
Patience
Many new bettors want to start winning right away. They also think that they
can win every wager. The reality is that even professional bettors lose roughly
40% of the time. For most inexperienced bettors, losing will be a big part of
the journey. This is largely due to making mistakes like the ones above and not
being patient.
Patience is definitely a form of self-discipline, but it’s also more than
just that. Patience can become a foundational element of your football betting
system. A few examples of patience when betting on football include:
- Plugging away and winning
and growing your bankroll a small percentage each week, all season long - Choosing just one game per
week based on your in-depth analysis, handicapping, and football betting system - No matter how you construct your betting system, without patience to create
and execute it, your system is doomed to fail.
Wealth of Resources
One aspect that’s often overlooked by inexperienced bettors is having a
library of football and betting resources. When creating your system, you are
going to sort through dozens of sources, hundreds of websites, and years of
football statistics. While doing this, the smart thing to do is bookmark all of
the webpages that you have researched, especially the ones that have valuable
statistical data. For example, bookmark sites like
NFL.com, which has a wealth of historical and
current data to pour through. Another fantastic site to analyze past data and
current seasons is Pro
Football Reference.
Building your own virtual library of football and sports betting resources
will help you to create an effective betting system that allows you to access
data when needed and to tweak things when necessary.
Examples of Football Betting Systems
Now that we have provided a foundational understanding of what a football
betting system is, it’s time to take a look at some examples. Keep in mind that
none of these systems are guaranteed to win you money. Instead, these examples
are beginner to intermediate football betting systems to use as references,
tools, and possible factors to add to your own system.
Bankroll Management
Bankroll management is an important discipline when betting on football. If
you don’t properly manage your bankroll, then you can easily lose most, if not
all of it. One common football betting system is based on wagering a certain
percentage of your bankroll on each bet. There are many experienced bettors and
resources that recommend betting only 2% to 5% of your bankroll on each wager.
If you have a $1,000 bankroll for the football season, then you
are only betting $20 to $50 per wager.
Taking it a step further, bet $20 on the wagers that you aren’t very
confident in and bet $50 on the wagers that you are the most confident in.
Moving forward, if you start winning a few bets, this system requires you to
keep the percentage throughout the winning streak and not to raise it because
you have won.
You went on a hot streak during the first month of the season
and won roughly 50% of your starting bankroll. That’s an additional $500 dollars
to your football betting funds. You are feeling great about your betting skills,
and you decide that it would be a great idea to increase your wagers to $100
each. If that’s the case, you would be making a huge mistake.
With this system, your wagers can go up some, but only at a proportional rate
to your bankroll. That means the wagers would still remain within the 2% to 5%
range. Now, instead of wagering $20 to $50, because you have increased your
bankroll to $1,500 due to your winning streak, you can now increase your wagers
to a range between $30 and $75.
This increase of wager amounts is proportional to your bankroll, whereas the
$100 wagers are not. So, when the inevitable losing streak comes, with the $100
wagers, you will be losing a disproportional amount of money to your bankroll.
This is often where inexperienced betters end up losing all of their money. They
mismanage their bankroll.
Do Any Betting Systems Work
As you can see, this system requires a basic level of math, self-discipline,
and patience.
Motivation
Motivation may seem like an impossible thing to quantify, but there are some
cases when it can be a huge factor. Keep in mind that both teams want to win.
So, you shouldn’t use this strategy and think that only one of the teams is
motivated, while the other team just doesn’t care. With that said, the following
is a list of common examples where motivation can be a system to employ:
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- A team fighting for a
playoff spot at the end of the season - A team coming off an
embarrassing loss the week before - A team that just fired their
coach during the season - A team that benched their
star player
All of these examples are cases where a team may “seem” more motivated or
desperate to win. This isn’t a guarantee that they will win, but it often will
show up in their on-field effort.
Bye Weeks
The bye week not only provides NFL teams with a chance to rest and an extra
week to prepare, but it also provides bettors with possible winning
opportunities. The following is a breakdown of how well teams did coming off
their bye week over the last 5 years. These records are from the 2013 to 2017
regular seasons only, as they don’t include playoff byes:
Team | Record following Bye Weeks over last 5 years | |
---|---|---|
Wins | Losses | |
Arizona Cardinals | 4 | 1 |
Atlanta Falcons | 3 | 2 |
Baltimore Ravens | 3 | 2 |
Buffalo Bills | 3 | 2 |
Carolina Panthers | 3 | 2 |
Chicago Bears | 1 | 4 |
Cincinnati Bengals | 2 | 3 |
Cleveland Browns | 1 | 4 |
Dallas Cowboys | 4 | 1 |
Denver Broncos | 3 | 2 |
Detroit Lions | 4 | 1 |
Green Bay Packers | 3 | 2 |
Houston Texans | 3 | 2 |
Indianapolis Colts | 2 | 2 |
Jacksonville Jaguars | 3 | 2 |
Kansas City Chiefs | 3 | 2 |
Los Angeles Chargers | 2 | 3 |
Los Angeles Rams | 3 | 2 |
Miami Dolphins | 2 | 2 |
Minnesota Vikings | 2 | 3 |
New England Patriots | 3 | 2 |
New Orleans Saints | 3 | 2 |
New York Giants | 2 | 3 |
New York Jets | 1 | 4 |
Oakland Raiders | 3 | 2 |
Philadelphia Eagles | 3 | 2 |
Pittsburgh Steelers | 2 | 3 |
San Francisco 49ers | 0 | 5 |
Seattle Seahawks | 4 | 1 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 1 | 3 |
Tennessee Titans | 3 | 2 |
Washington Redskins | 2 | 3 |
Expand Shrink
Based on the data above, the following teams are worthy of a bet following
their bye week:
- Arizona Cardinals (4-1)
- Dallas Cowboys (4-1)
- Detroit Lions (4-1)
- Seattle Seahawks (4-1)
Now, if you know football (and you really should), then you know that Andy
Reid has a 16-3 career record following a bye week. Although his current team,
the Kansas City Chiefs, only have a 3-2 record following the bye week under his
leadership, Reid is always worth a look due to his overall success.
Additionally, teams like the Patriots are worthy of a look because of how good
they are each year, despite an unimpressive bye week record over the last 5
seasons.
All teams with losing records should be avoided. However, the following teams
might make for a great opportunity to bet against them after they come out of
their bye:
- Chicago Bears (1-4)
- Cleveland Browns (1-4)
- New York Jets (1-4)
- San Francisco 49ers
(0-5) - Tampa Bay Buccaneers
(1-3)
NFL Short Weeks
For some betting experts and professional handicappers, they spend a lot of
time paying attention to teams following a short week. A short week is typically
when a team plays on a Monday night, then turns around and plays the subsequent
Sunday (6 days later). The following is a breakdown of each team’s record after
they played on a short week from 2014 through the 2017 regular season:
Team | Record following MNF game over last 4 years | ||
---|---|---|---|
Wins | Losses | Ties | |
Arizona Cardinals | 3 | 0 | 1 |
Atlanta Falcons | 3 | 2 | |
Baltimore Ravens | 3 | 2 | |
Buffalo Bills | 0 | 1 | |
Carolina Panthers | 1 | 3 | |
Chicago Bears | 1 | 4 | |
Cincinnati Bengals | 1 | 4 | |
Cleveland Browns | 1 | 1 | |
Dallas Cowboys | 0 | 4 | |
Denver Broncos | 4 | 1 | |
Detroit Lions | 2 | 4 | |
Green Bay Packers | 3 | 1 | |
Houston Texans | 3 | 2 | |
Indianapolis Colts | 3 | 2 | |
Jacksonville Jaguars | 0 | 0 | |
Kansas City Chiefs | 1 | 3 | |
Los Angeles Chargers | 1 | 2 | |
Los Angeles Rams | 2 | 0 | |
Miami Dolphins | 0 | 4 | |
Minnesota Vikings | 3 | 2 | |
New England Patriots | 3 | 1 | |
New Orleans Saints | 3 | 2 | |
New York Giants | 2 | 5 | |
New York Jets | 1 | 3 | |
Oakland Raiders | 1 | 1 | |
Philadelphia Eagles | 3 | 5 | |
Pittsburgh Steelers | 4 | 0 | |
San Francisco 49ers | 0 | 3 | |
Seattle Seahawks | 2 | 2 | |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 0 | 1 | |
Tennessee Titans | 1 | 1 | |
Washington Redskins | 2 | 4 |
Expand Shrink
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Since 2014, teams that played on Monday night and then turned around and
played on the following Sunday have combined to go 57-69-1. A further breakdown
of the data above shows that 15 teams have losing records and 4 more are even.
That’s 19 total teams without winning records. The following 6 teams don’t have
a win and would be candidates to bet against on a short week:
- Buffalo Bills
- Dallas Cowboys
- Jacksonville Jaguars
- Miami Dolphins
- San Francisco 49ers
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers
In addition to the above losing teams, there are 7 teams with only 1 win.
That’s 13 total teams with 1 win or less, or roughly 40 percent of the league.
On the other side of the spectrum, there are a handful of teams that seem to
thrive on a short week:
- Arizona Cardinals
(3-0-1) - Denver Broncos (4-1)
- Green Bay Packers (3-1)
- New England Patriots
(3-1) - Pittsburgh Steelers
(4-0)
After pouring through the data, it’s easy to see why this system is a popular
one. The majority of teams just don’t play well on short weeks.
Extended Weeks
Not only are there bye weeks for teams to rest and prepare, but there are
also extended weeks. These weeks are when a team plays on a Thursday night, and
then doesn’t play again for at least another 10 days. The following is a
breakdown of team records from 2014 through the 2017 season:
Team | Record following MNF game over last 4 years | ||
---|---|---|---|
Wins | Losses | Ties | |
Arizona Cardinals | 3 | 2 | |
Atlanta Falcons | 2 | 2 | |
Baltimore Ravens | 1 | 3 | |
Buffalo Bills | 2 | 2 | |
Carolina Panthers | 2 | 3 | |
Chicago Bears | 1 | 4 | |
Cincinnati Bengals | 1 | 3 | |
Cleveland Browns | 0 | 3 | |
Dallas Cowboys | 6 | 0 | |
Denver Broncos | 2 | 2 | |
Detroit Lions | 3 | 2 | |
Green Bay Packers | 5 | 1 | |
Houston Texans | 2 | 2 | |
Indianapolis Colts | 3 | 1 | |
Jacksonville Jaguars | 0 | 3 | |
Kansas City Chiefs | 2 | 3 | |
Los Angeles Chargers | 3 | 1 | |
Los Angeles Rams | 1 | 3 | |
Miami Dolphins | 0 | 4 | |
Minnesota Vikings | 2 | 2 | |
New England Patriots | 5 | 1 | |
New Orleans Saints | 3 | 1 | |
New York Giants | 3 | 1 | |
New York Jets | 1 | 3 | |
Oakland Raiders | 1 | 3 | |
Philadelphia Eagles | 3 | 1 | |
Pittsburgh Steelers | 5 | 0 | |
San Francisco 49ers | 0 | 4 | |
Seattle Seahawks | 2 | 3 | |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 1 | 2 | |
Tennessee Titans | 1 | 3 | |
Washington Redskins | 1 | 4 |
Expand Shrink
One would think that teams would have an advantage with a few extra days of
rest, but that’s not the case. The teams that played on Thursday nights went on
to have a 67-72 record in their next game. Furthermore, the following 4 teams
are winless during that span:
- Cleveland Browns
- Jacksonville Jaguars
- Miami Dolphins
- San Francisco 49ers
In addition to those 4 teams, 11 more teams have losing records, and another
3 teams have even records. That’s 18 total teams without winning records, or 57%
of the league.
Of the teams who seem to make the most out of the extended break, the Dallas
Cowboys (6-0) and Pittsburgh Steelers (5-0) are undefeated. The following teams
also appeared to have mastered the extended break:
- Green Bay Packers (5-1)
- Indianapolis Colts
(3-1) - Los Angeles Chargers
(3-1) - New England Patriots
(5-1) - New Orleans Saints
(3-1) - New York Giants (3-1)
- Philadelphia Eagles
(3-1)
Just like with bye weeks and short weeks, there are teams to keep an eye on
and teams to bet against.
West Coast to East Coast
For many years now, NFL fans and pundits have belabored how west coast teams
are at a disadvantage when having to travel to the Eastern Time Zone for early
games. Think about it; these west coast teams have to travel a far distance,
deal with jet lag, get prepared before their game, and have to play at a Sunday
time that they’re not accustomed too. Most west coast teams play at 4 PM ET when
at home but have to play at 1 PM ET when traveling to the east coast.
For further analysis, let’s take a look at the true west coast teams and how
they fared traveling to the Eastern Time Zone over the last 6 years:
Teams | Wins | Losses |
---|---|---|
Los Angeles Chargers | 11 | 12 |
Los Angeles Rams | 4 | 1 |
Oakland Raiders | 5 | 14 |
San Francisco 49ers | 6 | 8 |
Seattle Seahawks | 12 | 2 |
Over the last 6 years, these teams have combined for a 38-37 regular season
record when traveling to the Eastern Time Zone. Keep in mind that the Rams went
back to Los Angeles in 2016, and these records include late games, not just the
early ones. Also, you need to factor in that the Seahawks have been one of the
best teams over this span and that the Rams had a great 2017 season.
To further hammer home the point of this disadvantage, the 49ers, Chargers,
and Cardinals have proposed a change during the 2018 offseason to limit the
number of away games played at an earlier time for west coast teams.
Where there’s smoke, there’s fire. And this system can really heat up if you
find the right value.
The London Effect
Since 2007, the NFL has been holding annual regular-season games in London,
UK. Until 2016, teams would be required to take their bye week following the
London game. However, in 2016, the Colts requested to play the following week so
that they could have their bye week later in the season. Now, teams have the
option of a bye week after London or at a different point in the season.
Of the notable information coming out of crunching the London NFL data, teams
that won in London have gone on to post a record of 111-75-1 for the remainder
of the season. Teams that lost in London would go on to post a record of
77-111-1 throughout the remainder of the season. These wins and losses are based
on 2007 through 2017 regular season.
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Further analysis shows that in 2017, the winning London teams would go 30-11
for the rest of the year, while the losing London teams would go 17-26. This is
a system that’s definitely worth keeping your eye on heading into the 2018
season, especially since the NFL is hoping to one day put a team in London.
Home Field Advantage
Perhaps the most popular betting system for casual to intermediate bettors is
wagering on the home team. Despite its popularity, this system does have some
merit. For the most part, teams protect their turf and win at home. The one
thing you have to keep in mind is that the spread and moneylines help to level
the betting action on home teams. With that said, check out the following
breakdown of each team’s home record over the last 3 seasons:
Team | Home Team Records for last 3 years | ||
---|---|---|---|
Wins | Losses | Ties | |
Arizona Cardinals | 15 | 8 | 1 |
Atlanta Falcons | 14 | 10 | |
Baltimore Ravens | 14 | 8 | |
Buffalo Bills | 15 | 9 | |
Carolina Panthers | 18 | 6 | |
Chicago Bears | 7 | 17 | |
Cincinnati Bengals | 14 | 9 | 1 |
Cleveland Browns | 3 | 21 | |
Dallas Cowboys | 11 | 13 | |
Denver Broncos | 15 | 9 | |
Detroit Lions | 14 | 10 | |
Green Bay Packers | 15 | 9 | |
Houston Texans | 15 | 9 | |
Indianapolis Colts | 11 | 13 | |
Jacksonville Jaguars | 12 | 12 | |
Kansas City Chiefs | 18 | 6 | |
Los Angeles Chargers | 11 | 13 | |
Los Angeles Rams | 9 | 15 | |
Miami Dolphins | 13 | 11 | |
Minnesota Vikings | 18 | 6 | |
New England Patriots | 19 | 5 | |
New Orleans Saints | 15 | 9 | |
New York Giants | 12 | 12 | |
New York Jets | 12 | 12 | |
Oakland Raiders | 13 | 11 | |
Philadelphia Eagles | 16 | 8 | |
Pittsburgh Steelers | 18 | 6 | |
San Francisco 49ers | 8 | 16 | |
Seattle Seahawks | 16 | 8 | |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 11 | 13 | |
Tennessee Titans | 12 | 12 | |
Washington Redskins | 15 | 9 |
Expand Shrink
Only 8 teams have losing records at home over the last 3 years. That means
75% of the league is .500 or better at home. If you subtract the teams that are
even, you still have 20 teams with winning records. Of those 20, there are a
handful of teams that are virtually a lock to win at home:
- Carolina Panthers (18-6)
- Kansas City Chiefs (18-6)
- Minnesota Vikings (18-6)
- New England Patriots (19-5)
- Philadelphia Eagles (16-8)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (18-6)
- Seattle Seahawks (16-8)
If you notice, these 7 teams are annual contenders for the playoffs. In fact,
three of these teams have been to the Super Bowl during this span: Carolina, New
England, and Philadelphia. Both the Patriots and the Eagles have won the Super
Bowl over the last 2 years. Not only is winning at home important for the
regular season, but it also provides a huge advantage during the playoffs.
Live Betting and Half-Time Betting for Home Teams
Live betting and half-time betting are popular types of football wagers.
Without going into great detail about these popular wagers, live betting is when
you bet on a game during the action. For example, after every snap, sports
betting sites that offer live betting will update a plethora of betting wagers
like spread, total points, moneyline, first downs, run or pass, and more.
Half-time betting is when you bet on the second half of a football game. The
wager is offered during the specific game’s half-time, and you are betting on
what happens during the second half only. For example, you bet the Steelers at
-3 for the second half. That means they have to score at least 3 more
second-half points than their opponent.
Now that we have that out of the way, let’s get to a popular betting system
that incorporates home teams and live or half-time betting. The strategy is to
identify a home team that’s losing at half time or the beginning of the second
half and find value in betting on them.
If the Panthers are at home and losing at half time or during
the second half, then jump on a spread or moneyline that provides value because
Carolina typically wins at home. They’re 18-6 over the last 3 years.
Keep in mind that this system isn’t designed to bet on any and every home
team. It has to be a team that has a strong winning record at home. For example,
you can’t apply this system to the Cleveland Browns when they’re losing at home
in the second half. Cleveland has only won 3 home games over the last 3 years
and are unlikely to win the game you want to bet on.
If the home team is a favorite heading into the game, and they go down, then
it’s even more favorable to pick them to win the second half or to choose a live
bet that offers value.
For example, Kansas City is often favored at home, and
they’re usually the favorite over the visiting Raiders. But let’s say the
Raiders are leading in the third quarter. With an 18-6 home record over the last
3 years, I would definitely look for value with the spread or moneyline in favor
of the Chiefs.
On the flipside, if the underdog is losing at home going into the second
half, then look for the value in the spread or moneyline, as the payout might be
juicy. Just make sure it’s a team that has a good home record. A couple good
examples are the Bills and Texans, who all have 15 wins at home over the last 3
years. More times than not, they’re an underdog even at home.
A good example of this was the Buffalo Bills in 2017, who went 6-2 at home in
the season. They were underdogs in most of their home games, but still were able
to post an impressive home record. Almost as impressive was their 5-2-1 ATS
record at New Era Field.
Betting on home favorites and underdogs who are losing at half time or in the
second half can provide great value. You just have to be disciplined in knowing
what to look for and be patient enough to find it.
Wrapping It Up
Free Football Betting Systems That Work
As you can see, football betting systems require a foundation of football and
sports betting knowledge. From there, they also require self-discipline and
patience to effectively implement your system. Take the time to really study the
sport and develop a library of resources so that you can keep adding to or
tweaking your system. Remember, no football betting system is perfect. And when
it comes to betting on football, you will most likely lose more bets than you
win. The key is finding the best value with your system to improve your chances
of winning.